The global nonwovens industry must now address post-pandemic challenges. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that begin in 2019 on the global spunmelt polypropilene nonwovens market in 2020 was significant, and demand has now begun to normalize, especially in aquells producte categories on demanda surgit durant el pic de la pandèmia. We estimate all all pic demanda per mascaretes, protective roba i tovalloletes will pic in mid{{4% 7d}. Ja que llavors, demanda per no teixits en aquests producte categories has slowed, and at the beginning of 2023, this demand has slowed even further. In the medical market, inventories of nonwoven coils and soltable medical products have augmentd in some parts of the world since the third quarter of 2022, due to slowing demand. The destocking of these medical protective products has already begun, and we believe it will continue through most of 2023.
A addició, empreses across the globe face challenges and uncertainties stemming from the Russia/Ukraine issue, as well as com ongoing inflation and other potential threats to the global economic system.
1. Global capacitat i demanda
In 2022, we estimate that aproximadament 239,500 tones of new fine denier capacity will come on stream, primarily comprised of technology from Reicofil 5, Fare and China. These new units bring the total global production capacity to 5,351.2 kilotons. This capacity was mainly ordered during the height of the outbreak, but demand has been been falling as the number of infections has continued to decline throughout the year. By the end of 2022, capacity utilization had declined from its mid-2022 peak. We expect an additional 191,000 tonnes of new fine denier capacity to come on stream in 2023, bring capacity to aproximadament 5,542.2 tones.
Per 2024, we expect a further 110,000} tonnes of new capacity to come online. This will bring the total global fine denier production capacity to aproximadament 5,642.2 kilotons. In total, we judge that aproximadament 541,000} tonnes of fine denier spunbond capacity will come on stream during the 2022-2024} period. This would represent an increment of more than 10% sobre 2021 capacitat, i.e., a compost anual creixement taxa de 2,7% de 2021 a 2024.
Esperem demanda i creixement per normalitzar en en 2023 i retorn a normal demanda conductors. In aquesta cas, el baix naixement taxa en gairebé totes regions de el món voluntat afectar la demanda per nadó bolquers. Durant aquesta període, el anual creixement taxa de demanda per adult incontinència productes will be entre 5-6%.
Des de 2022 fins a 2027, global mitjana anual demanda creixement és esperat per ser al voltant 5%. Aquesta perspectiva és sensible a macroeconomia factors, malaltia xocs i global inestabilitat. El més ràpid creixement en demanda voluntat ser en sud Àsia (Índia) i Àfrica, seguit per Àsia Pacífic i Xina. Demanda creixement voluntat ser més modest en Nord i Sud Amèrica, major Europa i el Mig Est.
As el ple impacte de la nova capacitat és gradualment felt in el mercat, by 2024, allà és esperat per ser an sobreoferta en alguna parts de el món. Compensació aquesta capacitat augment és el potencial apagat de anterior generació tecnologia que era reactivat at el pic de la pandèmia. Raw material costos will remain volàtil i desproporcionat across regions.
En general, we expect raw material costos to decline in 2023 and rise in 2024. Contra this backdrop, we believe that investment in plant and equipment is likely to slow when the next round of investment is made in 2024 due to uncertainty and rising investment costs. We also anticipate that there may be upgrades to existenting capacity to increase the capacity of existenting machines.
2. Capacitat i demanda en Nord Amèrica
Entre 2022 i 2024, 131,500 tones de nou capacitat és esperat a entrar el mercat. Això augmentar en capacitat era principalment degut a la construcció de cinc nou reicofil 5 producció línies durant el període, inclusiu a línia ordenat per Avgol que era suposat per ser ser instal·lat en Rússia però era posteriorment reubicat a els Estats Units. El augment en capacitat en en Nord Amèrica voldrà posar pressió on capacitat utilització durant això període. Capacitat utilització en North America was fully utilized in the first half of 2021, but begin to weaken in the third quarter as epidemy-related demanda slowed.
Demanda continuada per afeblir moderadament endarrere 2022, amb demanda debilitar més en el quart trimestre as inventaris de productes relacionats mèdics augmentats degut degut a reduït demanda i lliuraments de prèviament demanats mercaderies. Per most de 2023, existències de no teixit productes mèdics voluntat continuar a reduir.
Esperem el demanda per higiene productes per per romandre inalterar, amb la demanda per nadó bolquers en línia amb el baix naixement taxa. El demanda per adult incontinència productes és esperat a creixement at a rate de 4% per any, inferior que en en anterior períodes degut a alt mercat penetració.
As inventaris contraccions i demanda devolucions a prepandèmia nivells, demanda en el sanitari mercat voluntat declivi significativament en 2023. demanda en la construcció i mercats industrials és més atractiu, però maig cara cap avall economia pressió. durant aquesta període, capacitat utilització voluntat declivi as nou capacitat comes en i vell capacitat és racionalitzat. Esperem nostre capacitat per abast 8.969 milions tones per el final de 2024.
3. Capacitat i demanda en Sud i Central Amèrica
In South America, capacity utilisation in 2022 was slightly lower than in 2021 due to a slowdown in CoVID relacionat EPI demand, and Fitesa Brasil's reicofil 5 (R5) line, who was commissioned in the second half of 2021, reached full capacity in 2022. While no other large production line installations have been announced, diversal low-to-medium capacity chinese-made production lines have been put into use in in in el regió. El demanda per un sol ús higiene productes i altres no teixits mercat és baix a moderat. Amb augmentar mercat penetració, el mercat demanda per adult incontinència continua per créixer més ràpid que altres higiene producte categories. addicional capacitat és esperat per ser afegit per 2026 a conèixer créixer demanda i modernitzar existent tecnologia. Esperem nostre capacitat a abast 354.0kt per el final de 2024.
4. Capacitat i demanda en Major Europa
In the Greater Europe region (incloent Turkey and Russia), capacity augmented by 355,000} tonnes in 2022 as new production lines came on stream in Union (Italy) and Innovatec (Alemanya), and new capacity came on stream in Master Plast (Hongria) and Gulsan (Turquia). With the commissioning of a a line at Fitesa and the full capacity of a new line in Gulsan to be commissioned in 2022, capacity will augment per 30,00t en 2023.
Capacity utilization in Greater Europe is uneven among producers and dependent on exports. Capacity utilization was moderate for most of 2021 due to the severity of the pandemic situation and weakened in the final months of the year. During 2022, demand weakened further, to more normal pre-pandemic levels. As destocking takes place, demand in the healthcare market will decline in 2023. With capacity outpacing demand growth in regional and export markets, capacity utilization in Greater Europe will remain low in 2023-2024. We expect capacity to reach 11.606 million tons by the end of 2023.
5. Capacitat i demanda en el Mig Est i Àfrica
A el Mig Orient i Àfrica, el sobresurge en epidemy-related demanda has provided the region with higher capacity utilization in 2020 and the first half of 2021. In the absence of COVID-19} relacionat demanda, high capacity utilization in the Middle East depends on exports to Europe and South Asia. Basat en nostre avaluació de demanda i importacions i exportacions, capacitat utilització per productors en el Mig Orient i Àfrica és esperat per romandre atractiu a través de 2023-2024}, amb pressió venir de nou producció línies en en Gulsan (Egipte) i PFNonteixits (Sud Àfrica) durant aquest període. El nostre anàlisi de el Mig Orient fa no incloure Iran. Baftineh instal·lat avançat tecnologia en Iran en el segon mig de 2020, modernitzant el empresa's tecnologia plataforma i afegint més producte característiques a sits portfolio. In addició, SGN (Aràbia Saudita) anunciat plans per instal·lar an R5 producció línia en Aràbia Saudita in 2024/2025.
In North Africa, Gulsan (Egypt) will open a Reicofil 5 production line with a capacity of 25,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2023. This brings the number of production lines operated by Gulsan in Egypt to three. PFNonwovens will install the R5 production line in South Africa in 2023, adding 15,000 tonnes of capacity. We expect the Middle East's production capacity to reach 192.0 kilotons by the end of 2024. Across Africa, capacity is expected to reach 197,000 tonnes by 2024.
6. Capacitat i demanda en Sud Àsia
In South Asia, with increasing market penetration of nonwovens, demand continues to grow and production capacity surges. Toray, Global Nonwovens, Manjushree Spntek and other producers have added 1.025 million tonnes of capacity in India since 2021, a 52 per cent increase from 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Toray launched a new Reicofil 4s production line at its new plant in India with an annual capacity of 20,000 tonnes.
Global Nonwovens commissioned a 300,000-ton R5 production line at its Indian plant in mid-2022, the company's third production line. Starting in 2015, Global convertame the first company in India to install high-capacity spunmelt equipment in the region. In the second half of 2022, Avgol commissioned the transfer of the upgraded Reicofil 3.1 production line from Israel to a second new plant in Índia. Manjushree has launched a new R5 production line in India. The production line has a capacity of 15,000} tons and is designed to serve the healthcare and hygiene products market. We expect India to install more capacity by 2026 as demanda continua to grow. Capacitat utilització en la regió romans high, and we expect capacity to reach 271.5 kilotons by the end of 2024.
7. Capacitat i demanda en Àsia Pacífic
By 2023, the largest producers in the region are Mitsui/Asahi (Japan, Thailand, 148.0 kilotons), Toray (South Korea, Indonesia, 103.0 kilotons), Fibertex (Malàisia, 96 quilotones) i Fitesa/CNC (Tailàndia, 69.0 kilotons). Mitsui and Asahi Kasei will merge in Octubre 2023 to convertir-se el món's quart més gran spunbonded PP nonwovens producer. Asahi Kasei started producció de a producció línia amb a capacitat de 15,000 tones en el tercer trimestre de 2021, que will reach full capacitat in 2022.
Fibertex (Malàisia) encarregat an R5 producció línia amb a capacitat de 15,000} tones en el primer quart de 2022. El producció línia will reach full capacitat in 2023. In el tercer trimestre de 2022, Myanmar's Cobes Industries and South Korea's Hanil launched new production lines. The demand for sanitary products in the region is growing, especially excluding Japan, where the market és fully penetrated. The increase in capacity reflects the increase in demand, and we expect capacity to reach 512.0 kilotons by the end of 2024.
8. Xina's capacitat i demanda
A Xina, we expect 41,500 tones of new PP SB/SMS capacity to come on stream in 2023. 89.0 kilotons and 67.5 kilotons were put into production in in 2022 and 2021, respectivament. This estimate includes new capacity at Allmed, Jofo Wuxi, Berry, Cobes and Guan Hong, all of who will employ R5 technology.
China appears poised to add more new capacity to supply the world with nonwoven substrates used in surgical gowns and cave towels. While more lines are expected to be installed in China during the 2024-2026 period, annual demand growth for Chinese-made spunmelt polypropylene nonwovens is expected to slow. Increased capacity and reduced demand will affect capacity utilization in the future. We estimate that the capacity will reach 20.37 million tons by the end of 2024. China is seriously oversupplied, and restoring proper capacity utilization will depend on exports.
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